22-23
GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Tue Mar 7, 2023
<p>The allure of fresh snow and a calm day is strong, but do not mess with deep slab instability, and don’t think you can outsmart it. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist, but a skier or rider won’t trigger a slide every time they touch a steep slope. With snowfall tapering off yesterday morning after a lightweight 1-4” fell, slopes will be <em>slightly </em>less sensitive to human triggers today. However, our trust in the snowpack is low after a weekend that included an avalanche resulting in a life-threatening injury just outside the advisory area (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28462"><strong><span>details and photos</span></strong></a>), a close call with a 4-5 foot deep avalanche on Hyalite Peak (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28455"><strong><span>details and photos</span></strong></a>), a 2-3 foot deep snowmobiler-triggered avalanche at Buck Ridge (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/23/snowmobiler-triggered-slide-buck-… and details</span></strong></a>) and 4-5 foot deep natural avalanche on Miller Mountain in Cooke City (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28489"><strong><span>photos and details</span></strong></a>). Go back another week on our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-incidents"><strong><span>avalanche incidents page</span></strong></a> and find four partial burials in the Cooke City area, plus a near miss in Cabin Creek, a natural avalanche in the Taylor Fork (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/23/natural-avalanche-sage-basin-3"><…;), a partially buried sled at Daisy Pass (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZFM_QZxG3Q&list=PLXu5151nmAvTi1DBS…;) and a partially buried rider in the Lionhead area.</p>
<p>We consider many of these slides deep slab avalanches. These are particularly scary because they are large and could easily be unsurvivable, signs of deep instability before an avalanche are limited to non-existent, stability tests aren’t as effective in yielding relevant information and many people may travel across a slope before someone hits the wrong spot, and it releases. In addition, some of these avalanches are failing in terrain just over 30 degrees on a weak layer of feathery surface hoar that survived long after being buried by snow in January.</p>
<p>Mitigate the risk of these large avalanches by making conservative terrain choices. Slopes under 30 degrees are generally safe, and lower-elevation and non-wind-loaded slopes are <em>safer </em>than upper-elevation alpine terrain with hard slabs of wind-drifted snow.</p>
<p>The second concern is avalanches failing within the new and wind-drifted snow. While smaller, these could be large enough to carry, injure or bury a skier or rider, especially where terrain traps are present. Yesterday, skiers north of Bridger Bowl saw several natural and human-triggered avalanches within the recent snow (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28493"><strong><span>observation and photos</span></strong></a>). Sunday, Alex triggered shooting cracks at Buck Ridge (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SJTky6-3wg"><strong><span>video</span>…;) and a group intentionally triggered sensitive slabs in the Northern Bridger Range that broke 5-10” deep (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28482"><strong><span>details and photos</span></strong></a>). On Saturday, a skier narrowly avoided a scary ride over cliffs in Hyalite Canyon in a relatively small avalanche (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28451"><strong><span>photos and details</span></strong></a>). Identify and avoid instability related to the new and wind-drifted snow by noticing signs like shooting cracks or recent avalanche activity.</p>
<p>The danger is rated CONSIDERABLE.</p>
<p><span>Please share avalanche, snowpack or weather observations via our<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_obs"><span> </span></a><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_obs"><strong><span>website</s…;, email (<strong>mtavalanche@gmail.com</strong>), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</span></p>
<p><span>Near-constant snowfall for two weeks has created dangerous avalanche conditions (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/28422"><strong><span>recent observation</span></strong></a>). Avalanches breaking deep within the snowpack are possible. Mitigate the risk of these large avalanches by making conservative terrain choices. Slopes under 30 degrees are generally safe, and lower-elevation and non-wind-loaded slopes are <em>safer </em>than upper-elevation alpine terrain with hard slabs of wind-drifted snow. Smaller avalanches within the new and wind-drifted snow are likely. Identify and avoid these instabilities by noticing signs like shooting cracks or recent avalanche activity.</span></p>
Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events
Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar.
March 9, 6 p.m.-7 p.m., 1-Hour Awareness - Spring conditions. FREE at REI Bozeman.
New Snow Avalanches, The Ramp
From IG, “Noticed a few natural and human triggered surface slides of the new snow on the old crust layer. All of these were north of Bridger Bowl on The Ramp”
From IG, “Noticed a few natural and human triggered surface slides of the new snow on the old crust layer. All of these were north of Bridger Bowl on The Ramp” C Lambert
Forecast link: GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Tue Mar 7, 2023
From IG, “Noticed a few natural and human triggered surface slides of the new snow on the old crust layer. All of these were north of Bridger Bowl on The Ramp”
New Snow Avalanches
From IG, “Noticed a few natural and human triggered surface slides of the new snow on the old crust layer. All of these were north of Bridger Bowl on The Ramp”
Natural Avalanche in the Taylor Fork
There was about 15” of storm snow. One of the slopes in Sage Basin avalanched with a large cornice trigger. The slide failed 85 cm deep (~3 feet) on a layer of surface hoar. The surface hoar was a surprise as we haven't seen avalanches on this layer for a long time. I got an ECTP27 in the flank, and it failed on the same layer of surface hoar as the avalanche. I would recommend minimizing time on wind-loaded slopes or avoiding them all together. Weak layers buried 3-4 feet deep are back in play, and I wouldn't ride a steep slope without testing them quickly.
PST Results Bridger Range
PST 50/100 at two layers - 115 down(crust facet combo) and 140 down (basal facet interface) 7500 ft NE aspect 15 degree slope angle. Several ECTX across region.